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urn:uuid:c808fb1b-a394-4695-84dc-b4163eeecaf5 03 15 9781911712480 00 EB E107 10 01 01 The Growth Story of the 21st Century The Economics and Opportunity of Climate Action 1 A01 Nicholas Stern Nicholas Stern is IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government, Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, Chair of the Global School of Sustainability at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). He has held posts at other UK and overseas universities, and as Chief Economist at both the EBRD and the World Bank. He was Head, UK Government Economic Service 2003–2007, and produced the Stern Review on the economics of climate change. He was President of the Royal Economic Society (2018–2019). He was President of the British Academy (July 2013–2017) and was elected Fellow of the Royal Society (June 2014). He was knighted for services to economics (2004), made a life peer (2007), and appointed Companion of Honour for services to economics, international relations and tackling climate change in 2017. He has published more than 15 books and 100 articles. 01 eng 23 Economics 10 SCI092000 23 Sustainable development 10 BUS072000 23 Climate policy 23 Growth 23 Climate action 23 Public policy 23 Development economics 23 Economic Transformation 23 Investment and Innovation 23 Climate Policy 01 06 03 00 The world stands at a crossroads. The next decade will determine whether we avoid climate, biodiversity, and economic catastrophe – or unlock a new era of sustainable, resilient, and inclusive growth. The Growth Story of the 21st Century challenges the outdated idea that we must choose between climate action and development. Instead, it presents a compelling case for a transformation that delivers both prosperity and a healthier planet.Drawing on economics, finance, policy, politics, and behavioural science, Nicholas Stern explores why this transformation is essential, what it entails, and how we can achieve it. He revisits the insights of the Stern Review two decades on and sets out a new research agenda for economics and the social sciences. <break/> <break/>This is a story of optimism – about how rapid technological advances, including digitisation and AI, can drive change at scale. But it does not shy away from the immense challenges ahead. With clear and practical strategies for national and international action, this book is a call to leaders, businesses, and individuals alike: the future is in our hands, and delay is the riskiest option of all. 04 00 PART I: FOUNDATIONS: A WORLD RE-DRAWN AND AN URGENT AGENDA FOR ACTION 1. How we got here, and where to now 1.1 Lessons from the two decades following the Stern Review 1.2 The new objective: from growth to sustainability 1.3 Extraordinary advances and deep challenges 1.4 International agreements: the significance of Paris, COP21 1.5 Growth: received theories, change, and the new vision 1.6 Concluding remarks: towards sustainable development 2. Some fundamentals: science and nature 2.1 The forces and the dangers 2.2 Risks, urgency, overshooting, tipping points, and carbon budgets 2.3 Adaptation, hazards, vulnerability, and development 2.4 Nature: biodiversity and climate 2.5 Concluding remarks: the science is clear and sets the timetable 3. More fundamentals: politics, economics, ethics 3.1 Politics and its intersections with history and geography 3.2 Economics and ethics 3.3 Ways forward for constructive analysis in economics and the social sciences 3.4 Concluding remarks: to my fellow economists 4. A changing world: new opportunities and an agenda for action 4.1 Forces for change: public pressure and legal accountability 4.2 Technology, innovation, and the private sector 4.3 International action in a changing world 4.4 A new geopolitics 4.5 Concluding remarks: the agenda PART II. THE NEW GROWTH STORY: INVESTMENT, INNOVATION, AND FUNDAMENTAL STRUCTURAL CHANGE 5. Rising to the challenges: the key elements of a new growth story 5.1 The drivers of growth 5.2 Economy-wide integrated action 5.3 Errors in common counterarguments 5.4 Investment across sectors and geographies 5.5 Development, poverty reduction, and climate action 5.6 Concluding remarks: the new growth and development story 6. Perspectives, policies, institutions: actions for rapid structural transformation and sustainable growth 6.1 Concepts and perspectives; technologies and systems 6.2 Fostering investment: strategies, systems, and platforms 6.3 Incentive structures for the new economy: tackling market failures 6.4 Financial structures for the new economy 6.5 Distribution and a just transition 6.6 Macroeconomic challenges 6.7 Concluding remarks: opportunities, choices, trade-offs, and commitment 7. The role of the state in a changing world 7.1 The confusions, failures, and dangers of market fundamentalism 7.2 The role of the state in driving change: crisis, urgency, and systemic transformation 7.3 Global public goods and internationalism 7.4 Institutions, rights, and behaviours 7.5 Political economy 7.6 Concluding remarks: recasting the role of the state PART III: INTERNATIONAL ACTION 8. Transformation of the international economy: interdependencies, new structures and geographies, differences across nations 8.1 An interdependent world 8.2 A new global economic geography 8.3 New opportunities: new resources, new players, competition 8.4 Natural capital: investment and impact 8.5 Differences between nations: EMDCs’ huge energy potential and infrastructure needs 8.6 Concluding remarks: opportunity, international cooperation, and a new economic geography 9. International action for sustainable development: investment, finance and collaboration 9.1 Future foundations: restoring trust and building new leadership 9.2 The investment imperative: what is needed where 9.3 Mobilising finance: international collaboration 9.4 Technology, industrial policy, trade, and innovation 9.5 Aligning global climate and biodiversity action 9.6 Overshooting, negative emissions, geoengineering 9.7 Concluding remarks: a global response to a global challenge PART IV: GALVANISING ACTION 10. Fallacies and confusions; obstacles and the risk of failure 10.1 Fallacies from advocates of weak or delayed action 10.2 Confusion and misdirection 10.3 Obstacles, action to tackle them, and the research agenda 10.4 Crucial issues that get too little attention: adaptation and biodiversity 10.5 Concluding remarks: dispelling fallacies and overcoming obstacles to action 11. Prospects for success: opportunity, urgency, multilateralism 11.1 Retrospect: developments since the Stern Review 11.2 Prospect: fostering action and an agenda for economics and the social sciences 11.3 Multilateralism 11.4 Concluding remarks: ‘Yes, we can’; success is possible LSE Press 01 LSE Press 04 01 20251105 02 WORLD 06 15 9781911712473 06 15 9781911712480 06 15 9781911712497 06 15 9781911712503 WORLD 09 LSE Press 20 01